Do you have link where the rating values and colours are explained and how they should be used? Asking because BTC reached the SMA 160, but the rating was 4 (green), so at least to me a bit confusing/contradicting. Thanks!
I've explained it in general terms, but the specifics always need some context. I get those from my algorithms, and obviously, I'm not giving those away..
Generally, a Green 4 = expect lots of ups and downs that cancel out to sideways movement for a bit. So, I sell out of all my leveraged positions because they fare poorly in that kind of environment. It's why I looked hard at the Ethereum trade and thought it was time to sell out ($ETH is leverage on Bitcoin).
In hindsight, I should have sold my $BTC too, but there was a strong contrarian signal that suggested that this was a temporary blip. That signal stopped the downgrade to a Yellow 3 on Monday.
I use that signal because it really does amplify gains as you are going up a bubble.
Then China made their statement and I sold the miners I bought on the contrarian signal.
On Tuesday, even before $BTC hit its SMA 200, my Daily subscribers got notice that cryptos were at a Yellow 3. I use a Yellow 3 to start scaling out, which is why I sold some more then.
Then Bitcoin dropped below the SMA 200 late last evening, so I started dumping (and continued early this morning since I have a lot to dump).
Everything happened unusually fast. Normally, $BTC unwinds over weeks not 3 days.
Hopefully, that answers your questions. Just let me know.
Hi Sebastian, I understand, now is clear why the rating was still 4. But still, can you tell me where I can find a general description of the ratings, at least like you gave here for 3 and 4? Of course, not how they are calculated, but how they should/could be used. Not sure if I missed that, it wasn't in the first weekly bubble that I have received. Without it, not sure how to use this information. Thanks!
I went back through my posts and emails -- and I explained it very specifically for Daily Subscribers a while back. I need to make this more widely available, so I'll have an extended post Tomorrow.
Very basically, here is how I interpret signals:
Green 5 = the coast is clear for even leveraged investments
Green 4 = good enough underlying fundamentals but expect volatility (= no leverage)
Yellow 3 = underlying fundamentals are not sustainable, I will sell out with moving averages.
Red 2 = who cares about moving averages, I'm selling
Red 1 = is it time to start shoring things?
You'll notice that I mostly just go long and don't really short bubble declines. The reason is that they are very hard to predict and because they are bubbles, it's not unusual for them to go the "wrong way" for an irrational period.
Do you have link where the rating values and colours are explained and how they should be used? Asking because BTC reached the SMA 160, but the rating was 4 (green), so at least to me a bit confusing/contradicting. Thanks!
Hi Daniel,
I've explained it in general terms, but the specifics always need some context. I get those from my algorithms, and obviously, I'm not giving those away..
Generally, a Green 4 = expect lots of ups and downs that cancel out to sideways movement for a bit. So, I sell out of all my leveraged positions because they fare poorly in that kind of environment. It's why I looked hard at the Ethereum trade and thought it was time to sell out ($ETH is leverage on Bitcoin).
In hindsight, I should have sold my $BTC too, but there was a strong contrarian signal that suggested that this was a temporary blip. That signal stopped the downgrade to a Yellow 3 on Monday.
I use that signal because it really does amplify gains as you are going up a bubble.
Then China made their statement and I sold the miners I bought on the contrarian signal.
On Tuesday, even before $BTC hit its SMA 200, my Daily subscribers got notice that cryptos were at a Yellow 3. I use a Yellow 3 to start scaling out, which is why I sold some more then.
Then Bitcoin dropped below the SMA 200 late last evening, so I started dumping (and continued early this morning since I have a lot to dump).
Everything happened unusually fast. Normally, $BTC unwinds over weeks not 3 days.
Hopefully, that answers your questions. Just let me know.
Hi Sebastian, I understand, now is clear why the rating was still 4. But still, can you tell me where I can find a general description of the ratings, at least like you gave here for 3 and 4? Of course, not how they are calculated, but how they should/could be used. Not sure if I missed that, it wasn't in the first weekly bubble that I have received. Without it, not sure how to use this information. Thanks!
Thanks for this question!
I went back through my posts and emails -- and I explained it very specifically for Daily Subscribers a while back. I need to make this more widely available, so I'll have an extended post Tomorrow.
Very basically, here is how I interpret signals:
Green 5 = the coast is clear for even leveraged investments
Green 4 = good enough underlying fundamentals but expect volatility (= no leverage)
Yellow 3 = underlying fundamentals are not sustainable, I will sell out with moving averages.
Red 2 = who cares about moving averages, I'm selling
Red 1 = is it time to start shoring things?
You'll notice that I mostly just go long and don't really short bubble declines. The reason is that they are very hard to predict and because they are bubbles, it's not unusual for them to go the "wrong way" for an irrational period.
Great! Now is more clear. Looking forward also for the post tomorrow. Thanks!